Environmental storm accelerates. Will the industry reshuffle packaging paper set off a surge in prices?
release date: effective transformation and upgrading ideas and measures are put forward by different industries. 7 source: Chinese paper views: 1851 copyright and disclaimer
core tips: [China Packaging news] in order to tackle the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and win the blue sky defense war, the restricted areas of high emission industries are no longer limited to Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, one city, three provinces in the Yangtze River Delta Fen Wei plain
[China Packaging News] in order to tackle the problem of air pollution prevention and win the blue sky defense war, the restricted areas of high emission industries are no longer limited to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas, and regions such as one city, three provinces in the Yangtze River Delta and Fen Wei plain will also be included
recently, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Guangdong, Shanxi and other places have introduced measures to solve the problem that the pointer of fatigue testing machine in chemical enterprises does not work in spring test? The number of cities involved in the renovation plan will increase from the previous "2+26" to 80. Industry insiders believe that this also means that a new round of reshuffle of the chemical industry will begin in the second half of 2018
will the escalation of the environmental storm set off a surge in the price of chemicals
environmental protection has become an important variable on the supply side
in order to win the blue sky defense war, since 2018, many places across the country have successively introduced a variety of legal systems against environmental pollution, which not only covers an increasingly wide range, but also has stricter accountability measures in the future
Tian Weiyong, director of the Environmental Supervision Bureau of the Ministry of ecological environment, said at the end of June that the scope of this round of supervision was wider, expanding from 28 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas to 80 cities. The Ministry of ecological environment will also carry out listing supervision or public interviews for cities with concentrated environmental violations by industrial enterprises, ineffective promotion and implementation of air pollution prevention and control, and prominent air pollution problems, so as to seriously quantify accountability
"under the new normal of economic development, environmental protection has become an important variable affecting the supply side of the chemical industry." Xu Liuming and Deng Xianhe, analysts of industrial securities, said that with the introduction of the judicial interpretation of the "two Supreme People's congresses" on criminal cases of environmental pollution and the implementation of various environmental protection policies and acts, domestic environmental protection and safety requirements have been continuously improved and local governance and implementation efforts have been strengthened
some enterprises cut production and shut down due to environmental protection failure or difficulty in bearing the increase of processing costs in production, which has a great impact on the supply side and demand side of the industry. With the subsequent strengthening of environmental governance by government departments, the tightening of illegal supervision and the continuous improvement of enterprises' attention to cleaner production, the chemical industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of backward energy consumption
"in fact, the environmental storm in the domestic chemical industry started last year and gradually strengthened in February this year. First, the first round of Environmental Protection Supervision held by the Ministry of ecological environment on February 7. Looking back, we will focus on the supervision of the locations of five supervision centers in East China, South China, northwest, northeast and southwest." Xu Jing, a researcher of Meierya futures chemical industry, said
Huang Liqiang, analyst of Jinshi futures, said: "domestic environmental protection inspection has been normalized since 2016." On the one hand, environmental protection inspection is an act of protecting the environment because of the increasingly serious pollution caused by the unqualified emission of enterprises; On the other hand, it can also be regarded as a kind of supply side reform behavior to raise the operating threshold of enterprises and eliminate small and medium-sized enterprises that do not meet the standards
small and medium-sized enterprises are frustrated
it is worth mentioning that this round of environmental protection supervision focuses on avoiding "one size fits all", but firmly "one size fits all" against illegal enterprises
"this change has made great progress compared with the previous period, distinguishing different types of large and small factories. Some small factories in the downstream have reduced the production units or stopped work for rectification due to the non-standard discharge of pollutants, while large factories have not been affected by this supervision due to the overall standard of environmental protection, and the operating rate of some factories has remained at about 90%." Xu Jing said
Huang Li Qiang also said, "due to the normalization and deepening of environmental protection inspection, the production of domestic small and medium-sized chemical enterprises has been greatly affected. Among them, coal chemical enterprises are the ones with greater pollution, so PVC, methanol, urea and ethylene glycol enterprises will be affected."
"the impact of environmental protection policies on chemicals is mainly reflected in three dimensions: first, the birth of the supply side. 5. Check and print measured data. Reform - eliminate backward production capacity; second, limit the operating rate of devices upstream and downstream of the industrial chain; third, trigger downstream order transfer." Xu Jing said
Xu Jing further said that the impact of environmental protection policies is closely related to the characteristics of the chemical industry. For the oil and chemical industry chain, the middle and upper reaches are dominated by two barrels of oil or large private enterprises, most of which are relatively standardized and are not affected by environmental factors; For the coal chemical industry chain, the coal industry is mostly the main force subject to environmental protection, and the elimination of backward upstream production capacity is the effect of supply side reform promoted by environmental protection; The downstream of the chemical industry are mostly fully competitive enterprises, which are particularly affected by environmental protection due to their small, scattered and chaotic characteristics. "Plastic knitting enterprises downstream of PP, weaving industry downstream of PTA, printing and dyeing industry, calcium carbide industry upstream of PVC and asphalt are all the key varieties affected."
taking PVC and methanol as examples, Huang Liqiang said that the upstream calcium carbide production of PVC is concentrated in the northwest, so it will be affected by environmental protection every winter. In addition, as the state has increased the requirements for mercury emissions, small and medium-sized enterprises must upgrade their own equipment for production, but this is unbearable for small and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, in fact, the introduction of the environmental protection inspection policy has accelerated the clearing of production capacity; The coke oven gas production capacity of methanol is concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi and other places, which are key areas of environmental protection inspection, so the coke oven gas production capacity is also greatly affected by environmental protection
from the perspective of industrial development, Xu Liuming and Deng Xianhe said that although the willingness to invest in the chemical industry gradually began to rise after years of downturn, under the general situation of stricter environmental protection supervision, the resumption of small and medium-sized production capacity and the release of new production capacity were further restricted, and the total amount of construction in progress in the industry just began to turn from negative to positive after 10 consecutive quarters of negative growth, Considering the continuous withdrawal of some inefficient production capacity in the early stage and the concentration of capital expenditure to leading companies, the release of production capacity will be more orderly in the future
it depends on the "face" of the end market.
in fact, before this, the chemical industry has appeared in recent years, but now there have been three large-scale renovations
according to Xu Jing, in 2015 and 2016, the environmental protection renovation of PVC upstream calcium carbide industry eliminated some backward capacity, making the PVC industry chain gradually enter the low-speed production period from the cycle of excess capacity. From last year to this year, the shutdown of water jet looms in various regions has also made downstream cloth difficult to find. Then there is the downstream regulation of polyolefin, which makes the order transfer from small plants to large plants, and standardizes the whole market behavior
from the perspective of the overall commodity market, Huang Li Qiang said that the current domestic commodity prices continue to rise, on the one hand, due to external disturbances and the rise in import prices due to the depreciation of the RMB, on the other hand, due to inflation expectations. In this case, the general trend of domestic chemicals will still be upward. Environmental protection and production restriction will contribute to the price of chemicals, or expand the increase of commodities, which is of great help to improve the business conditions of enterprises, speed up industrial integration, promote industrial concentration, and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises
Xu Jing believes that at the dawn of a new round of reshuffle in the chemical industry, environmental protection factors are not the leading factor. The low inventory and non weak demand in the off-season of most chemicals have become the main driver of this price rise
"but at present, there are doubts about whether the domestic end market can bear the continuous rise in the price of chemicals. In this case, once the end market does not follow up, the rise in the price of industrial products will be difficult to continue." Huang Li Qiang said
a shares, Xu Liuming and Deng Xianhe suggested to focus on four main investment lines: first, some industry chains are integrated, with prominent advantages in cost and environmental protection. With the release of production capacity, new products are expected to continue to grow steadily; Second, the private refining industry with large-scale new units, leading technology and high degree of integration; Third, under the supply side reform, the boom continues to rise in the fine-grained industry; Fourth, high-quality assets with broad development space and relatively certain performance growth under the industrial trend
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